Conclusions and Thoughts:
Deaths from viruses such as influenza, rhinovirus (common cold) and SARS viruses, including C0V-2, are significantly affected by the weather, mainly sunshine (UV radiation) and temperature.
There is a strong correlation of 0.74 between all causes of death and respiratory deaths and an even higher correlation of 0.91 between respiratory + CoV-2 and all causes of death.
There are significantly more deaths in winter than in summer, with 364,483 higher winter deaths for the last 10 years, or an average of 36,448 more winter deaths per year.
The 2010-2019 average weekly for all causes of death was 9,894; for respiratory deaths was 1,373
In 2020 (up to 11Dec) all causes average was 11,581 (10,252 in 2015) equating to 1,329 more deaths per week than 2015.
In 2020 (up yo 11Dec) respiratory + CoV-2 deaths was 2,349 (1,469 in 2015) equating to 880 more deaths per week than 2015 influenza. We also have to consider that the UK population has increased from 64.8 million in 2015 to 68.0 million in 2020 and extra 3.2 million people..
Although correlation do not appear to be very strong between weather parameters and deaths this is due to averaging weekly death data and UK average weather data.
From my research on the weather effect on living organisms, I suggest UV radiation has a major impact on the potency of airborne viruses. Each individual airborne virus has its own associated array of genes. A specific set of these associated genes are switched on or off by UV or IR radiation.
I also suggest CoV-2 was in the population well before the testing started w/c 06Mar2020. This is back up by my experience. We visited Lisbon for a long weekend break in the middle of December 2019. Ten days after our return my partner went down with a hacking cough, feeling very lethargic and ended up with a chest infection. After visiting the doctor, she was treated with a course of antibiotics. She recovered after this treatment.
On the 30Dec2019, I also developed a hacking cough, for the next 5 days I was bed ridden with continued hacking cough, chronic sweating, and interspersed with uncontrollable shivering. Then a chest infection developed. I also went to visit the doctor, who also prescribed a course of antibiotics. I was also sent for an x-ray (local hospital) of my chest. Four hours later I received a phone call from my doctor telling me I had to go to the nearest major hospital, RUH Bath, for a CT scan, he thought I had lung cancer.
To cut a long story short, I had the CT scan which showed extensive airspace opacification, with ground glass like opacification and very small nodules. After 10 days the chest problems did not dissipate and was given a stronger more targeted course of antibiotic by another. Another 10 days and I was back to normal health. I was told later that it was highly suggestive I had contracted COVID-19.
During our incubation period we had been out for a few meals, to the local pub, normal Christmas shopping trips, a Christmas market and we had relations stay with us over Christmas. We did have to cancel our New Year celebrations in a hotel with six friends. How many people did we infect, hundreds if not thousands I suspect.