CO2 in Perspective
posted 4th January 2021
Method:
With the above statement in mind, we decided to investigate. We looked at the underlying knowledge of atmospheric gases, where we noticed a flaw in the percentage of gases suggested. We then looked at the relationship between levels of CO2 in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, (longest record of CO2 monitoring) and compared temperatures from the Central England Temperature (CET) the longest temperature record. The two geographical points of data, Hawaii and England were deemed acceptable, as we are told by the greenhouse gas theory that CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere.
Then we analysed the percentages of man-made CO2 in comparison to global CO2 and the percentage of man-made emissions globally and the UK.
Our final analysis compared 21 years of mean temperatures for the UK and compared this to CO2 data from Mauna Loa Observatory.
Fig 1 CO2 vs CET Temperature 1959-2019
We chose 1959 as a starting point, as this was the first recorded year for monitoring CO2. The CET record goes all the way back to 1659 in the middle of the Little Ice Age (LIA).
Figure 1 shows both temperature and level of CO2 have both risen within the chosen timeframe. However, taking three twenty-year periods we can see, there was a week correlation between 1959 and 1979, a moderate correlation between 1980 and 1999 and a negative correlation between 2000 and 2019. This means CO2 is rising quicker than temperature. Over the last 20-year period, with a negative correlation, shows no statistically significant correlation between CO2 rise and temperature rise.
As one part of the "greenhouse gas theory" is shown to be wrong, we looked at the other fundamental part of the theory, CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere.
During 2014, NASA launched a satellite (OCO2) to monitor levels of CO2 over the globe.
The image on the right is a plot of monthly CO2 levels for the last 6 years from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, were NASA have been monitoring CO2 levels since 1959.
CO2 shows it has a seasonal effect, higher in summer and lower in winter, which aligns with temperature.
We know that seasons are caused by the position of the Earth in relation to the Sun.
If CO2 has thermal changing properties, the oscillating of CO2 shows it must heat the atmosphere in spring/summer and cool the atmosphere in autumn/winter.
The net result would be thermal neutrality.
The logical way to explain the oscillations is increasing heat in spring/summer caused by Earth's relationship to the Sun expands atmospheric gas CO2 and the opposite effect in autumn/winter, a cooler atmosphere contracts levels of gases.
As such, the IPCC hypothesis that man-made CO2 emissions is once again proved wrong.
Fig 2 OCO2 satellite image 2014
It is obvious from figure 2 image that CO2 is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere. There are higher concentrations over tropical rain forests and other large forests. Also, concentrations are higher in warmer parts of the oceans.
There appears to be synchronicity with the Inter-Tropical Convergenece Zone (ITCZ).
It also appears to be part of the natural carbon cycle, where plants, phytoplankton and other living organisms suck in CO2 to enact photosynthesis.
Carbon Dioxide in Perspective
Carbon dioxide is a trace gas in a dry atmosphere, estimated at 0.0415%, which means 99.96% is not CO2. However, the Earth's atmosphere is not dry, it contains water in it's three states of solid (high clouds), liquid (medium and low-level clouds and fog), and gas in the form of water vapour. Levels of water in these three states has been difficult to estimate. Based on the relative humidity (RH), which is the percentage of moisture of a saturated atmosphere, over the UK for the last 21 years, the average RH is 80.8%. In the Sahara Desert the average RH is 25%.
The IPCC suggest man-made emissions of CO2 accounts for 3% of total atmospheric CO2. Total atmospheric CO2 is 415 parts per million, 0.0415%, (1 part per 2,409), therefore man-made emissions are 3% of 415 ppm which is 12.45 ppm or (12.45/1,000,000), 0.001245%, 1 part per 80,321 other gases.
In the UK man-made emissions, accounts for 1% of the 3% total man-made emission. This equates to (12.45x1%), 0.00001245%, which is 0.1245 ppm or 1 part per 8,032,128
Fig 3 percentage of atmospheric levels CO2 (412ppm), global man-made CO2 emissions (12.4pp) and UK CO2 emissions (0.124ppm).
Table 1 CO2 and emissions summary
These figures are computed from a dry atmosphere and does not include water in it's three states (solid, liquid and gas).
| Dry Atmosphere | Global CO2 | Global Man-made Emissions | UK Emissions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parts per million | 415 | 12.45 | 0.1245 |
| % | 0.0415% | 0.001245% | 0.00001245% |
| 1 part in.. | 2,409 | 80,321 | 8,032,128 |
Fig 4 UK mean temperature vs levels of CO2
As shown in figure 4 there is no statistically significant correlation between the UK mean temperature and levels of CO2. This is based on the IPCC global warming assumption that CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere.
Conclusions:
Total CO2 accounts for a very small percentage of atmospheric gases especially considering the lack of account of water vapour.
Total man-made emissions of CO2 at 1 part per 80,645 of atmospheric gases would have no effect of increasing temperature.
UK man-made emissions of CO2 at 1 part per 8,064,516 is so insignificant it could not affect anything within the atmosphere. Net Zero Carbon Emissions (which I guess they mean carbon dioxide) is futile and financially damaging for the UK, costing an estimated £3trillion.
When CO2 rises in the atmosphere, organisms on/in both land and oceans increases, with global land greening of 14% at present over the last few decades. It must also be recognised that natural CO2 has been much higher in the past.
There is no climate emergency, crisis or whatever other adjectives people wish to use.
Carbon dioxide is good for greening (planet Earth.