Posted 8th April 2022
Posted 1 year ago
By Neil Catto FRMetS
NET ZERO CARBON
NET ZERO CARBON - A review of CO2 & Temperature
NET ZERO CARBON - A review of CO2 & Temperature
Weather controls viral load in the atmosphere, viral load changes levels of infections and deaths; Lockdowns/other restrictions have prevented natural herd immunity
March 2022: Only 13 days of viable wind power in the UK
Why do the BBC & Met Office make up the scariest stories about weather?
Despite being told the UK has a climate emergency, there is absolutely no empirical scientific evidence of that being the case.
Climate does not change weather - Accumulated weather changes the climate.
We believe and practice the scientific method. Robust analysis of empirical data is vital to our understanding of weather and climate
UK Meteorological facts
As part of our consumer research and well-being projects we have been collecting raw (not homogenised) weather data for the last 24 years on a daily basis.
We collect raw data for 28 locations geographically spread throughout the UK, (covering 95% of the UK population). These data consist of mainly of 48x1/2 hourly observations per day for each location.
The IPCC say storms are going to be more severe and more frequent
The two weather parameters to best indicate storminess is minimum pressure and maximum wind speed.
Neither minimum pressure nor maximum wind speed shows any statistically significant change to the 24 year 6 month trend.
There is no empirical evidence of more frequent and severe storms in the UK.
The IPCC say there are going to be more frequent and severe floods and droughts.
The most appropriate metrics to measure floods and droughts is rainfall volume and rainfall duration.There is no statistically significant change to either rainfall volume or duration in the UK for the last 24 years 6 months.
There is no empirical evidence of either more frequent or severe floods or droughts happening in the UK
The IPCC say there will be multiple meters of Sea Level Rise
Two of the longest running sea level monitoring locations in the world are in the UK, Newlyn in Cornwall and North Shields in the NE of England.
When recovering from the Little Ice Age (LIA) 1600-1750, temperatures have risen naturally, with a small loss of Arctic ice and and a small increase in sea levels,
With Newlyn at 1.84mm/year and North Shields 1.90 mm/year it would take over 500 years to reach just 1m. Considering the UK has some of the highest tides in the world >15m in some locations, 1.90 mm/year is insignificant.,
There is no empirical evidence of multiple meters sea level rise for the next 1,000 years
According to Ex-Chief Science Advisor to the UK government, pollution kills 36,000 people in the UK, (no mention over what time span). Although not one single death certificate has "pollution" as cause of death. DEFRA figures disprove his assertions. After smog enveloped many cities in the UK in 1952, the Clean Air Act was introduced in 1956 to eliminate the problem. The air became noticeably cleaner.
"As seen opposite all pollutants in the atmosphere over the UK have NEVER been cleaner, since the Clean Air Act 1956."
Image DEFRA via notalotofpeopleknowthat:
The IPCC say man-made CO2 will increase temperatures
The fundamental physics espoused by the IPCC about climate change says CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere and increasing levels of CO2 will increase atmospheric temperatures.
The image opposite shows it is almost impossible to forecast temperature by using CO2 as a metric. How can they accurately measure all the low points on the temperature scale?
Just because there is a slight correlation in trend does not mean CO2 is the driver, unless you have taken the natural variation of temperature into account. i.e. the natural increase in temperature from recovery of the little ice age.
There is no empirical scientific evidence that CO2 increases temperature in the UK
The world's longest temperature record is the Central England Temperature (CET) dating back to 1659.
The image opposite shows a slight rise in temperature. Considering the record began during the Little Ice Age (LIA) it is not surprising temperatures have been naturally rising during the recovery period (0.03°C/decade) (1.39°C in 363 years from this event.
If CO2 has a thermal effect on the atmosphere, what can be explained by the image opposite?
Levels of CO2 oscillate seasonally. CO2 does not make the seasons, It is the Earth's position to the Sun which make the seasons.
In this image it shows that CO2 can heat the atmosphere in summer and cool the atmosphere in winter, thus having no overall heating effect.
So the "non fundamental IPCC hypothesis is WRONG. CO2 does not heat the atmosphere to any significant degree.
Global CO2 is 0.04% of atmospheric gases. 97% of CO2 is natural, (given the IPCC estimate of 3% man-made emissions is just 0.0012% of total CO2. With the UK estimate of CO2 emissions being 1% of this, shows UK contribution is 0.0000124% of total global CO2
The IPCC say CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere?
In 2014, NASA launched a satellite to monitor global concentrations of carbon dioxide.
The image opposite shows carbon dioxide is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere.
Carbon dioxide has higher concentrations over major forestation and over warmer areas of oceans. These are areas where flora and fauna naturally suck CO2 from the atmosphere to enact photosynthesis. This is a perfectly natural process.
The southern line of high concentrations of CO2 oscillates (north & south) in conjunction with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). A natural phenomena.
These findings based on empirical observations disprove the fundamental physics theory promoted by the IPCC.
In a dry atmosphere the composition of gases are; 78% Nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.93% argon along with trace gases of carbon dioxide (0.04%), neon, helium, methane, krypton, hydrogen and water vapour (>1% to 4%).
However, we do not have a dry atmosphere, there has been water vapour in varying amounts for billions of years. The levels depend on which air mass is prevalent and varies widely over the Earth.
Fig 16 shows water vapour (grey shading), clouds (white/grey shading).
The middle section shows the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Mid-Africa, west and east. Above and below the ITCZ are areas of high pressures, black areas (Hadley Cells).
Depending on airmass, water vapour can vary from being a trace gas >1% in a hot, dry airmass (e.g. deserts) and cold dry airmass (e.g. polar regions), to 99% in moist warm airmass (e.g. tropical rain forests).
NEW update on water vapour Article Water Vapour Observations
The atmosphere of Earth is 50% saturated.
With regard to its affect on temperatures around the globe, the sun, and water in its three phases: solid, liquid and gas are the most significant factors of weather and therefore climate change.
The IPCC claims total man-made emissions of CO2 are 3.0% of total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: 0.04% x 3.0% giving 0.00125%.
UK man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is now just 1.0% of total man-made emissions. In effect, our research shows the UK is responsible only for 0.0000125% of total atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Upper Air Measurements
On figures 17 & 18 the vertical blacks line on the right are the dry bulb thermometer readings of temperatures (deg C) at height, and the black lines on the left are the wet bulb temperature (deg C). The closer they are, the air is moister, the further apart the air is drier.
Figure 17 shows how moist the air is up to 12,000m, recorded above Nottingham and figure 18 shows the dryness of the air above Alice Springs, Australia. Also, in figure 18 where the lines are closer together at 8-9000m suggests a layer of cirrus cloud.
Also on both figure 17 & 18 on the right are wind speeds and directions at height. On the far right is a column of data showing such things as instability of the airmass among many other bits of information.
Many thanks to Wyoming University for access to raw Surface Observations and Upper Air Soundings
Global Climate Overview: Weather makes climate, but climate does NOT make weather
Climate is simply a name describing long term weather phenomena deemed by the World Meteorological Organisation, as a period of 30 years or longer. We believe this time is much too short, as there are a myriad of natural climatic cycles, including solar, atmospheric and oceanic, spanning significantly longer periods.
• Since 1659 (the Central England Temperature -CET) being the longest running temperature record in the world, just 360 years out of 4.6 billion years of weather on Earth
• Since 1979 we also have satellites monitoring of the atmosphere
• ARGO buoys were introduced into the oceans in 1999 to measure pressure, temperatures, salinity, acidity from 2,000ft down, up to the surface
• Studies of geological changes, where changes to different types of rocks and sediments, can broadly indicate the Earth's climate
• Proxies such as ice-cores, and tree-rings which are not completely accurate but can be an indication of past weather.
• Glacial studies, where receding glaciers reveal trees from hundreds or thousands of years ago indicate warmer periods of the past
• Writings from historical figures going back in history depicting broad scale descriptions of weather e.g. Samuel Pepys 1633-1703.
Following are just some examples of statements from the IPCC climate scientists:
• The global temperature will rise between 4.0 and 6.0 Deg C with a doubling of CO2
• There will be no sea ice left in the Arctic along with rapid melting of the Antarctic ice sheet will cause catastrophic sea level rise
• There will be greater frequency and more severe storms
• Similarly, greater frequency and more severe floods and greater frequency and more severe droughts
• Pollution will kill 40,000 people in the UK alone
• Globally, 1,000,000 species will become extinct because of climate change
• The UK was promised a Mediterranean climate
• Polar bears will become extinct, likewise puffins in the UK will become extinct
• Coral reefs will be beyond recovery after bleaching due to CO2 effect on ocean acidification
• In the UK "Children just aren't going to know what snow is", "snowfalls are a thing of the past"
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event". ... "Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.(17 Jan 2013)
What was this white stuff on the 1st Feb 2019 in Somerset?
Hurricanes (Cyclones & Typhoons)
Hurricanes (cyclones, typhoons) are measured by Global Hurricane Frequency and Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Frequency is close to average. Accumulated Cyclone Energy is 31Dec2020 low and below average, measured since 1970.
Considering one of the worst hurricanes hit Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Bermuda, between 9th-20th October 1780 with between 22,000 and 27,500 deaths. Hurricanes have not been this bad for a long time.
N.B. Early hurricanes have mysteriously disappeared from this website but remains on Wikipedia
Not as predicted.
Most people became aware of Global Warming in 1998 with the publication of a paper by Mann, Bradley & Hughes, with their depiction of a "hockey stick" scenario of northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction over the last 1,000 years
In 2008, the UK government introduced the Climate Change Act to be "world leaders" of tackling climate change. The act of parliament was written by Bryony Worthington, an English graduate and brought to parliament by Ed Miliband, who graduated with a degree in Philosophy, politics and Economics. Neither had a scientific background.
These are the issues with the "Hockey Stick Graph", firstly they omitted to replicate the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) about 900-1200 AD (CE), Secondly, they omitted to replicate the Little Ice Age (LIA) 1600-1700s. Both of which were well understood in 1998.Thirdly the use anomalies based on a particularly cold period of time 1961-1990. When the MWP and LIA are included, Fig 2 shows the revised context.
The tip of the red line projection was based on one sample of a tree ring in Yamal, Siberia, Apparently there were other samples which showed the opposite effect but were discarded, see Hockey Stick analysis
Trees also need sunshine, water, nutrients, and CO2 to enact photosynthesis and grow, as such tree-ring proxies are an indicator and not a precise measure of temperature alone.
The study has been debunked by several papers including McIntyre & McKittrick [https://climateaudit.org/]
The hockey stick graph was a very poor representation of what the real climate in the NH had been over the last thousand years.
97% consensus but in reality, 0.54%
The opening of the Abstract of the paper by John Cook et al 2013 "We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming."
Let's look at the math:
• 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, although their papers matched the topics "global climate change" or "global warming"
• 0.7% abstracts rejected AGW
• 0.3% abstracts were uncertain about the cause of global warming
• Only 32.6% abstracts endorsed AGW, out of those we are told 97.1% scientists endorse AGW
• 97.1% of 32.6% is......31.7%
Then when you read the full paper it shows just 65 papers suggested, half the warming may be from man-made emissions. So, just 0.54% suggest there may be some man-made global warming.
Criticism of the paper came from Professor Mike Hume, one of the UK's leading Climate Scientists; "The [Cook et al.] article is poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed. It obscures the complexities of the climate issue and it is a sign of the desperately poor level of public and policy debate in this country that the energy minister should cite it. It offers a similar depiction of the world into categories of 'right' and 'wrong' to that adopted in [an earlier study]: dividing publishing climate scientists into 'believers' and 'non-believers'. It seems to me that these people are still living (or wishing to live) in the pre-2009 world of climate change discourse. Haven't they noticed that public understanding of the climate issue has moved on?"
Key Climate Factors (Nov2021)
As of August 2022, global sea ice is at 22.5 million Km2, above the 1979-2019 average, but not as predicted, plus there are the land ice sheets of Greenland 2.2m Km^2 and Antarctica 14m Km^2 to be considered. Plus 200,000 glaciers.
Total Global Ice cover is over 42 million square Km
Polar Sea Ice you have to scroll down quite a bit.
Ole Humlum, Professor of Geosciences, Oslo University.
In the last few years both Greenland and Iceland glaciers have been growing, not as predicted.
Global Sea Level Rise
As Earth has been recovering from LIA since the 1600s, it is not surprising the sea level has risen, but to what extent? When investigating sea level rise using tide gauge data from different parts of the globe sea level rise ranges from 2mm-6mm per annum [https://www.psmsl.org/]
There are several notes to be made, measurements are, from a climate point of view, limited in the amount of time in historical measurements. There has been no account for plate tectonic movements, isostatic uplift (rising land after glaciation) or sinking land from erosion, particularly river deltas.
The oceans are not flat: low-pressure systems raise sea levels and high-pressure systems lower sea levels. Also, winds can channel sea levels to a land mass and hence increase the height and of course the opposite.
We have heard about coral atoll islands being submerged due to rising sea levels. The ring of a coral island atoll is the tip of a submerged mountain top. The water inside the atoll is a freshwater lens which floats on the sea below. There is a ring of living (growing) coral on the ocean side, and the ring itself is made up of dead coral debris and sand. As sea levels rise, the living coral grows and the freshwater lens floats higher, erosion is balanced, so it is difficult to see how they could be affected by sea level rise.
Once all the above is considered there is a small increase in sea levels globally. This varies in different parts of the globe, but it will take hundreds of years to reach just 1 meter. Should global temperatures start to cool then sea levels will again begin to fall. It has happened over and over again throughout history.
USA Tornado Activity
Tornado activity in the USA is at a very low point.
Not as predicted.
For, millions of years the oceans have been alkaline, at 8.2 pH. There has been little or no change: the oceans are still base (alkaline) at 8.1 pH, nowhere near acidic. Ocean acidification is a nonsense term used by people who clearly do not understand the science of oceans or the pH scale. The pH scale ranges from 10 to 1, ten being strongly alkaline and one being strongly acidic. Fresh water is neutral at 7pH.
Professor Peter Ridd, John Cook University (JCU), and expert on the Great Barrier Reef, was sacked for publishing a paper and discussing his research with observations and photographs of the reef in 2016 showing the health of the reef. The university however claimed the reef was decimated, without evidence, due to climate change. Who would you believe, a proper scientist with photographic evidence or a politically agenda biased university? The outcome of Ridd's dismissal was a court case in which the judge found him NOT Guilty on all ten accounts leading up to his dismissal.
We know from geological history the Earth has undergone significant changes to its climate, from major glaciations, almost covered in ice, to inter-glacial periods where there has been no ice on Earth. At the time of writing (Jan2022), we have 40m Km2 of ice on Earth, This includes sea ice, the land masses of Antarctica and Greenland,and more than 200,000 glaciers in high mountainous regions, currently, with 40m Km2 of ice on Earth, it is more than the size of China, Canada, USA, Australia, and India combined (39.4m Km2).: we are technically still at the end of the last ice age.
Empirical evidence from the UK disproves the theory that carbon dioxide increases temperature, also the seasonality (at Muana Loa Hawaii) of CO2 levels shows a thermal equilibrium. NASA satellite OCO-2 shows carbon dioxide is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere, but perfectly natural carbon sinks and out gassing of the oceans..
Man-made climate change hypothesis does not align with empirical observations. There is no climate emergency