Weather & Climate

UK Meteorological facts

As part of our consumer research project we have been collecting weather data for the last 21+ years on a daily basis.

We collect data for 27 locations geographically spread throughout the UK, (covering 95% of the UK population) and consists of mainly 48x1/2 hourly observations per day.

Climate does not make weather events. Accumulated weather makes climate.

UK Weather Stats
June 2020 vs June 2019

12% Lower Pressure
06% Higher Temperature
04% Lower Relative Humidity
02% Higher Wind Speeds
04% Less Sunshine
05% Lower Rainfall Volume
17% Lower Rainfall Duration
10% Higher Weather Index

Another dry month, although thundery spells, with less sunshine, slightly warmer temperatures and feeling slightly better with a an increase of the Weather Index compared to last year.

Despite being told the UK has a climate emergency by government, councils, green activists and mainstream media, there is absolutely no scientific evidence of that being the case. In fact, for the last 20+ years, the weather has been very stable; with no statistically significant change in temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, sunshine, rainfall volume or duration.

Fig 10 Sea Level Rise Newlyn UK 1920-2017 Courtesy PSMSL

Fig 11 Sea Level Rise North Shields UK 1900-2017 Courtesy PSMSL

When recovering from a Little Ice Age (LIA) we would expect a rise in temperature, loss of some ice and an increase in sea levels, but at 1.92-1.83 mm/year it would take between 520-550 years to reach just one metre.

Images:
Sea Level

UK Pollution

According to Ex-Chief Science Advisor to the UK government, pollution kills 36,000 people in the UK, (no mention over what time span). Although not one single death certificate has "pollution" as cause of death. DEFRA figures disprove his assertions. After smog enveloped many cities in the UK in 1952, the Clean Air Act was introduced in 1956 to eliminate the problem. The air became noticeably cleaner.

As seen in figure 12 all pollutants in the atmosphere over the UK have NEVER been cleaner, since the Clean Air Act 1956.

Image DEFRA via notalotofpeopleknowthat:
Pollution

Fig 12 the state of pollution in the UK 1970-2017

UK Climate

The world's longest temperature record is the Central England Temperature (CET) dating back to 1659.
Data:
CET

Figure 13 shows a very small rise in the CET. Considering the record began during the Little Ice Age (LIA) it is not surprising temperatures have been naturally rising (0.03°C/decade) from the recovery of this event.

We are constantly informed climate change is caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases and is dangerous to life. There is, however, no empirical evidence to support these claims. Our research shows in the UK there has been no statistically significant rise in temperature, pressure, wind speed, rainfall volume, rainfall duration or sunshine for the last 20+ years. There is no evidence of it being stormier (pressure/wind speed). There is no evidence of more droughts (rainfall volume/duration). There is no evidence of more heatwaves (temperature). Sea level rise is not what was has been suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 20 years ago. Empirical data show there is no "climate emergency".

Fig 13 Central England Temperatures, source: UKMO

CO2 vs Temperature

The fundamental physics espoused by the IPCC about climate change says CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere and increasing levels of CO2 will increase atmospheric temperatures.

Figure 14 shows there is a negative correlation between temperature and levels of CO2 in the UK over the last 20+ years. A negative correlation indicates CO2 does not increase temperatures in the UK.

CO2 Data:
CO2

Fig 14 shows the relationship between CET temperature and CO2

Is CO2 a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere?

In 2014, NASA launched a satellite to monitor global concentrations of carbon dioxide.

As Figure 15 shows carbon dioxide is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere.

Image:
OCO2

Carbon dioxide has higher concentrations over forests and over areas of oceanic phytoplankton, which naturally sucks CO2 from the atmosphere to enact photosynthesis. This is a perfectly natural process.

These findings based on empirical observations disprove the fundamental physics theory promoted by the IPCC.

Fig 15 NASA satellite OCO2 measuring levels of CO2

The Atmosphere:

In a dry atmosphere the composition of gases are; 78% Nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.93% argon along with trace gases of carbon dioxide (0.04%), neon, helium, methane, krypton, hydrogen and water vapour (>1% to 4%).

However, we do not have a dry atmosphere, there has always been water vapour in varying amounts. The levels depend on which air mass is prevalent and varies widely over the Earth.

Fig 16 shows water vapour (grey shading), clouds (white/grey shading).
The middle section shows the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over Mid-Africa, west and east. Above and below the ITCZ are areas of high pressures, black areas (Hadley Cells).

Image:
Modis

Depending on airmass, water vapour can vary from being a trace gas >1% in a hot, dry airmass (e.g. deserts) and cold dry airmass (e.g. polar regions), to 4% in moist warm airmass (e.g. tropical rainforests).

With regard to its affect on temperatures around the globe, water in its three stages solid, liquid and gas is the most important.

The IPCC claims total man-made emissions of CO2 are 3.7% of total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: 0.04% x 3.7% giving 0.0015%.

UK man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is now just 1.0% of total man-made emissions. In effect, our research shows the UK is responsible only for 0.000015% of total atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Fig 16 Water Vapour Channel 6 Meteosat 0900 UTC 16Aug2019

Upper Air Measurements

On figures 17 & 18 the vertical blacks line on the right are the dry bulb thermometer readings of temperatures (deg C) at height, and the black lines on the left are the wet bulb temperature (deg C). The closer they are, the air is moister, the further apart the air is drier.

Figure 17 shows how moist the air is up to 12,000m, recorded above Nottingham and figure 18 shows the dryness of the air above Alice Springs, Australia. Also, in figure 18 where the lines are closer together at 8-9000m suggests a layer of cirrus cloud.

Also on both figure 17 & 18 on the right are wind speeds and directions at height. On the far right is a column of data showing such things as instability of the airmass among many other bits of information.


Many thanks to Wyoming University for access to raw Surface Observations and Upper Air Soundings

Images:
Skew-T

Fig 17 Nottingham Upper Air Sounding 16Aug2019 0000 UTC

Fig 18 Alice Springs Australia Upper Air Sounding 16Aug2019 0000 UTC

Global Climate Overview: Weather makes climate, but climate does NOT make weather

Climate is simply a name describing long term weather phenomena deemed by the World Meteorological Organisation, as a period of 30 years or longer. We believe this time is much too short, as there are a myriad of climatic cycles, both atmospheric and oceanic spanning significantly longer periods.

Measuring weather:

• Since 1659 (the Central England Temperature -CET) being the longest temperature record in the world, just 360 years out of 4.6 billion years of weather on Earth
• Since 1979 we also have satellite monitoring of the atmosphere
• ARGO buoys were introduced into the oceans in 1999 to measure pressure, temperatures, salinity, acidity from 2,000ft down, up to the surface
• Studies of geological changes, where changes to different types of rocks and sediments, can broadly indicate the Earth's climate
• Proxies such as ice-cores, and tree-rings which are not completely accurate
• Glacial studies where receding glaciers reveal trees from hundreds or thousands of years ago indicate a warmer past
• Writings from historical figures going back in history depicting broadscale descriptions of weather e.g. Samuel Pepys 1633-1703.

Following are just some examples of statements from the IPCC climate scientists:

• The global temperature will rise between 4.0 and 6.0 Deg C with a doubling of CO2
• There will be no sea ice left in the Arctic along with rapid melting of the Antarctic ice sheet will cause catastrophic sea level rise
• There will be greater frequency and more severe storms
• Similarly, greater frequency and more severe floods and greater frequency and more severe droughts
• Pollution will kill 40,000 people in the UK alone
• Globally, 1,000,000 species will become extinct because of climate change
• The UK was promised a Mediterranean climate
• Polar bears will become extinct, likewise puffins in the UK will become extinct
• Coral reefs will be beyond recovery after bleaching due to CO2 effect on ocean acidification
• In the UK "Children just aren't going to know what snow is", "snowfalls are a thing of the past"

Weather & Climate

Terminology:

Most people became aware of Global Warming in 1998 with the publication of a paper by Mann, Bradley & Hughes, with their depiction of a "hockey stick" scenario of northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction over the last 1,000 years
Image:
Hockey Stick

In 2008, the UK government introduced the Climate Change Act to be "world leaders" of tackling climate change. The act of parliament was written by Bryony Worthington, an English graduate and brought to parliament by Ed Miliband, who graduated with a degree in Philosophy, politics and Economics. Neither had a scientific background.

These are the issues with the "Hockey Stick Graph", firstly they omitted to replicate the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) about 900-1200 AD (CE), Secondly, they omitted to replicate the Little Ice Age (LIA) 1600-1700s. Both of which were well understood in 1998.Thirdly the use anomalies based on a particularly cold period of time 1961-1990. When the MWP and LIA are included, Fig 2 shows the revised context.

Fig 1 “the hockey stick” published in a paper by MBH98

The tip of the red line projection was based on one sample of a tree ring in Yamal, Siberia, Apparently there were other samples which showed the opposite effect but were discarded, see Hockey Stick analysis

Trees also need sunshine, water, nutrients, and CO2 to enact photosynthesis and grow, as such tree-ring proxies are an indicator and not a precise measure of temperature alone.

The study has been debunked by several papers including McIntyre & McKittrick [https://climateaudit.org/]

The hockey stick graph was a very poor representation of what the real climate in the NH had been over the last thousand years.

Fig 2 “the hockey stick” including the Medieval warm period

97% consensus but in reality, 31.7%

The opening of the Abstract of the paper by John Cook et al 2013 "We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991-2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming."
Let's look at the maths:

• 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, although their papers matched the topics "global climate change" or "global warming"
• 0.7% abstracts rejected AGW
• 0.3% abstracts were uncertain about the cause of global warming
• Only 32.6% abstracts endorsed AGW, out of those we are told 97.1% scientists endorse AGW
• 97.1% of 32.6% is......31.7%

Criticism of the paper came from Professor Mike Hume, one of the UKs leading Climate Scientists; "The [Cook et al.] article is poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed. It obscures the complexities of the climate issue and it is a sign of the desperately poor level of public and policy debate in this country that the energy minister should cite it. It offers a similar depiction of the world into categories of 'right' and 'wrong' to that adopted in [an earlier study]: dividing publishing climate scientists into 'believers' and 'non-believers'. It seems to me that these people are still living (or wishing to live) in the pre-2009 world of climate change discourse. Haven't they noticed that public understanding of the climate issue has moved on?"

Key Climate Factors (July2019)

Sea Ice:
As of 31st July 2019, global sea ice is at 23 million Km2, exactly on the 1979-2018 average, but not as predicted, plus there are the land ice sheets of Greenland 2.2m Km^2 and Antarctica 14m Km^2.

Image:
Polar Sea Ice you have to scroll down quite a bit.
Ole Humlum, Professor of Geosciences, Oslo University.

In the last few years both Greenland and Iceland glaciers have been growing, not as predicted.

Glaciers

Fig 3 Global seas ice. Courtesy: climate4you.com – Ole Humlum – Professor, University of Oslo Department of Geosciences.

Global Sea Level Rise

As Earth has been recovering from LIA since the 1600s, it is not surprising the sea level has risen, but to what extent? When investigating sea level rise using tide gauge data from different parts of the globe sea level rise ranges from 2mm-6mm per annum [https://www.psmsl.org/]

There are several notes to be made, measurements are, from a climate point of view, limited in the amount of time in historical measurements. There has been no account for plate tectonic movements, isostatic uplift (rising land after glaciation) or sinking land from erosion, particularly river deltas.

The oceans are not flat: low-pressure systems raise sea levels and high-pressure systems lower sea levels. Also, winds can channel sea levels to a land mass and hence increase the height and of course the opposite.
We have heard about coral atoll islands being submerged due to rising sea levels. The ring of a coral island atoll is the tip of a submerged mountain top. The water inside the atoll is a freshwater lens which floats on the sea below. There is a ring of living (growing) coral on the ocean side, and the ring itself is made up of dead coral debris and sand. As sea levels rise, the living coral grows and the freshwater lens floats higher, erosion is balanced, so it is difficult to see how they could be affected by sea level rise.

Once all the above is considered there is a small increase in sea levels globally. This varies in different parts of the globe, but it will take hundreds of years to reach just 1 metre. Should global temperatures start to cool then sea levels will again begin to fall. It has happened over and over again throughout history.

Hurricanes (Cyclones & Typhoons)

Hurricanes (cyclones, typhoons) are measured by Accumulated Cyclone Energy and are currently close to average, measured since 1970 and show some cyclical pattern. Considering the worst hurricane hit Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Bermuda, between 9th-20th October 1780 with between 22,000 and 27,500 deaths.

ACE

N.B. Early hurricanes have mysteriously disappeared from this website but remains on Wikipedia

Deadly Hurricanes

Not as predicted.

USA Tornado Activity

Tornado activity in the USA is at a very low point.

Not as predicted.

Image:
Tornado Activity

Fig 5 Annual EF3+ Tornado Count USA 1970-2017 (NASA)

Ocean Acidification:

For, millions of years the oceans have been alkaline, at 8.2 pH. There has been little or no change: the oceans are still base (alkaline) at 8.1 pH, nowhere near acidic. Ocean acidification is a nonsense term used by people who clearly do not understand the science of oceans or the pH scale. The pH scale ranges from 10 to 1, ten being strongly alkaline and one being strongly acidic. Fresh water is neutral at 7pH.

Professor Peter Ridd, John Cook University (JCU), and expert on the Great Barrier Reef, was sacked for publishing a paper and discussing his research with observations and photographs of the reef in 2016 showing the health of the reef. The university however claimed the reef was decimated, without evidence, due to climate change. Who would you believe, a proper scientist with photographic evidence or a politically agenda biased university? The outcome of Ridd's dismissal was a court case in which the judge found him NOT Guilty on all ten accounts leading up to his dismissal.

Summary:

We know from geological history the Earth has undergone significant changes to its climate, from major glaciations, almost covered in ice, to inter-glacial periods where there has been no ice on Earth. At the time of writing, we have 39.2m Km2 of ice on Earth, plus glaciers in high mountainous regions: we are technically still in an ice age.

Empirical evidence from the UK disproves the theory that carbon dioxide increases temperature, and NASA satellite OCO-2 shows carbon dioxide is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere. Man-made climate change theory does not align with observations.