Over the next two weeks, between 20-30,000 hypocrites will have flown in from all over the world to attend the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland. Not only will they be telling us not to fly on holiday, but just think of the carbon footprint they will make. As if it makes a jot of difference.
IPCC Seven hypotheses of Climate Change :
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere
Carbon dioxide increases temperature.
Man-made carbon dioxide emissions will cause:
More frequent and severe storms
More frequent and severe floods & droughts
Sea level rise of multiple meters
Severe losses of sea ice
So, how are their predictions doing in Glasgow (host city) and the UK (host country)? UK=[https://www.weather-research.com/weather-and-climate]
You may need these Glaswegian dictionaries to translate some of the comments!
Carbon Dioxide is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere:
Fig 1 from NOAA OCO2 satellite Oct-Nov 2014
OCO2 was launched in 2014 to measure the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. Figure 1 shows carbon dioxide is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere. It shows significantly higher levels over the world's rain forests, other large forest areas, and warmer parts of the oceans.
Quite natural of course, land and ocean flora sucking in vast amounts of both 97% organic and 3% man-made CO2 to enact photosynthesis, not that the flora can tell the difference. Needless to say, this image does not exist on the NOAA site anymore. https://ocov2.jpl.nasa.gov/galleries/videos/#images-1
The idea that carbon dioxide is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere is a bit like socialism. Equally spread the global finances among everyone in the world and within minutes there will be rich and poor, c'est la vie. Despite the disappeared image above, nature will always default to areas with more CO2 and areas with less, contrary to IPCC doctrine.
The IPCC say 3% of global carbon dioxide is man-made, therefore 97% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is natural. How can they differentiate any effect to mankind?
Man-made emissions will increase the global temperature by 1.5°C
If they tell us the temperature will rise 1.5°C because of increases in man-made emissions of carbon dioxide. Does this mean the global temperature should rise naturally by 48.5°C (1.5x97/3)? Utter nonsense!
They also deliberately forget the Little Ice Age (LIA) c1600-1750. Look at the world's longest running temperature record and see what you get. Oh, it was only the northern hemisphere they tell us, how do they know this? There is no accurate temperature or CO2 data from tree rings and ice cores to act as a reasonable reference.
Fig 2 Central England Temperature (CET) 1659-2020
The CET, the longest running temperature record in the world, shows natural warming coming out of the LIA of 0.03/decade, 1.08°C in 361 years. As this is natural warming it means;
From AR6 summary for policy makers, "A.1.3 The likely range of total human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 is 0.8°C to 1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C", minus the 1.08°C natural, leaves -0.01°C cooling can be attributed to human-causes, clever eh!
Do they ever consider logic? What about, solar cycles, Milankovitch cycles, ENSO, PDO, AMO and others, These well known cycles operate in or out of phase of each other, in other words chaotic. They all affect the Earth's temperature both up and down to some extent?
And then there is magic stuff called water, in its three states; solid (high clouds, ice precipitation), liquid (lower clouds & rain/drizzle precipitation) and gas (water vapour) which they do not understand at all.
Now, let's have a look at the situation in Glasgow, the hosting city. For the last 23 years I have been collecting raw daily weather data (unhomogenised - "nae number fixin") for 28 locations in the UK, Glasgow airport (EGPF) is one. These data are from 48 x ½ hourly observation/per day for the last 8,402 days (403,296 individual observations), empirical data, "nane o the media single weather events or a few tree rings"!
Glasgow mean temperature vs carbon dioxide
IPCC say carbon dioxide increases temperature
Fig 3 CO2 vs Glasgow Tmean 1999-2020
With a negative correlation comparing CO2 and Tmean would indicate carbon dioxide does not increase temperature in Glasgow. As Einstein said, paraphrasing, it just takes one to disprove a theory.
With carbon dioxide levels currently at 414ppm which means, as the IPCC suggest, 3% human influence is accountable for 12.42ppm and the UK is just 1% of 12.4ppm at 0.124ppm. Which in percentage of total atmospheric gases, UK emissions are 0.0000124%.
As the IPCC say man-made emissions are going to increase the temperature by 1.5°C, The UK (1% of 1.5°C) will increase temperatures by 0.015°C,as they say in Glasgow "these 20-30,000 hypocrites are a' bampots"! "Ya widnae even feel it".
Glasgow Weather 05Oct1998 to 31Oct2021
IPCC say man-made emissions will increase temperatures by 1.5 deg C
Figures 4, 5, and 6 show human-caused carbon dioxide is not increasing temperatures in Glasgow. Ooops! "Nae globul warmin here" 20-30,000 hypocrites and "they're a' bawbags"
IPCC say man-made emissions will cause more frequent and severe storms
The best metrics for showing storms is minimum pressure and maximum winds speed.
Figures 9 and 10 show there is no empirical evidence of more frequent or severe human-caused flooding or droughts in Glasgow. "Its aye pishing doon here but nae mare than usual". 20-30,000 hypocrites "aye they're a' rockets"
Glasgow sea level
IPCC says there will be multiple meters of sea level rise caused by man-made emissions
Fig 11 Sea level rise Millport near Glasgow
The Firth of Clyde running through Glasgow is tidal. Millport is the nearest place with recorded sea levels, however the data is short and erratic.
For a better indication of long-term trends there are two of the world's longest running sea level gauge recording stations in the UK, (from 1910-current) Newlyn in SW England and North Shields in NE England.
Fig 12 Sea level rise Newlyn SW England
Newlyn shows a trend increase of 1.84mm/year
Fig 13 Sea level rise North Shields NE England
North Shields shows a trend increase of 1.90mm/year
At 1.90mm/year at North Shields, it would take 526 years to reach just 1m. So, at COP175 (every 6 years) they can claim multiple seas level rise (2m).
Considering the highest tides in the UK reach >15m, not a lot to worry about! There is no empirical evidence of human-caused dangerous sea level rise in and around Glasgow or the UK for that matter. 20-30,000 hypocrites and "I'll bet they are a' scunnered" that their models dinnae match reality.
IPCC say there will be severe losses of sea ice on the planet, caused by man-made emissions
Fig 14 Sea ice levels Global, Arctic, and Antarctic 1979-Aug2021
Currently (August2021) there is 24m Km2 of sea ice on the planet, 1m Km2 more than the 1979-2020 average, but this has to do with the time of year.
Added to this, there is 2.2m Km2 of ice on the Greenland plateau, 14m Km2 on Antarctica and 1.13m Km2 of (200,000) glaciers ice, giving a global total amount of ice on Earth of 41.33m Km2. That is about the same size as the whole American continent, or Canada, USA, China, Australia, India, and Peru all added together (41.22m Km2).
That is a huge amount of ice on Earth. Are we technically still at the back end of the last ice age and not quite inter-glacial? 20-30,000 hypocrites saying "Nane or wee sea ice! they're a wired tae the moon, eejits."
IPCC don't say but imply there will be more frequent and catastrophic wildfires caused by man-made emissions
Every single weather event nowadays is associated with "climate change/global warming". Wildfires are of particular interest to the media because they can be sensational (nice pictures for the front pages).
As wildfires can occur during cold weather as well as warm weather how can they be associated with global warming?
Most fires are cause by careless people disposing cigarette butts, BBQs and the like, bad land management by local green (ha ha) governments and arsonists.
The cause of these fires has had an interesting turn of events in recent years. See image opposite.
Fig 15 the number of wildfires cause by eco arsonists
At last, a hockey stick, but these data are just made up much like the original based on dubious tree rings. Although 2021 has seen unprecedented numbers of green activists (senior academics, no less) being charged with arson. 20-30,000 hypocrites and they "cannae see the Irny (Barrbru)".
This must be very humiliating for the IPCC and their 25-30,000 hypocrites to be in a city and country which has not had any of their theories verified by empirical data.
I hope Glasgow is stocked up with haggis, neeps, tatties, and Mars bars 😊
Deep fried Mars Bars=[https://www.glasgowliving.today/culture/5-places-to-try-a-deep-fried-mars-bar-in-glasgow/]
Neil Catto FRMetS (from the other side of Scotland, where most people can understand us!)
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