For the last 22 years we have been told by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
• CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere
• CO2 increases temperature
• Temperatures will increase
• Storms will become more frequent and more severe
• Drought will occur more frequently
• Floods will occur more frequently
• Sea levels will rise by meters
During November 2021, between 10,000 and 20,000 delegates, politicians and media will fly in from all over the world into Glasgow to attend the COP26 conference ^[Postponed until November 2021, due to COVID].
The Conference of the Parties (COP26) is taking place in Glasgow in the UK in November 2021 to discuss climate change. We have been monitoring what the weather has been doing in Glasgow for the last 22 years.
I analysed Glasgow's weather for the last 22 years to compare with the above statements. Raw weather data [Pressure max, min, mean; Temperature max, min ,mean; Dew point max, min, mean; Relative Humidity mean; Wind Speed max, min, mean; sunshine total; rainfall volume; and rainfall duration; has been collected daily from Glasgow Airport (EGPF) in METAR format from 05Oct1998 to present. There has been no homogenisation (human adjustments). I will update the charts monthly in the run up to November.
- CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere - see image 1
- CO2 increases temperature - see Headline Fig 1
- CO2 in perspective - see Fig 3
- Temperatures will increase - see charts 1, 2, & 3
- Storms will become more frequent and more severe - see charts 4 & 5
- Drought will occur more frequently - see charts 6 & 7
- Floods will occur more frequently - see charts 6 & 7
- Sea level will rise by meters - see image 2
Image 1 shows CO2 is not a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere; source NOAA/NASA OCO2 satellite
Headline Chart 1 shows CO2 does not increase temperatures (the correlation is negative) in Glasgow
Image 2 shows the miniscule amount of CO2 in the atmosphere; total 0.04%, man-made 0.0012%. UK 0.000012%
Charts 1, 2, & 3 show no statistically significant trend in temperatures (max, min, mean). Temperature is not increasing
Charts 4 & 5 show no statistically significant trends in pressure and wind speeds there is a slight increase, therefore storms are not more frequent or more severe.
Charts 6 & 7 show there is no statistically significant trend in rainfall volume or rainfall duration, and therefore no, more frequent droughts or floods.
Image 3 shows the trend of sea level rise (Portrush, NI) near Glasgow is 10mm/decade. It would therefore take 100 years to reach 1 meter at the current trend. Considering the highest tides are 2.63m, it is hardly worrying.
The seven tenets of the UNFCCC and IPCC have not occurred in Glasgow for the last 22 years.