How to get 1.9 Deg C warming without even trying!
posted 19th July 2021
I have been collecting and analysing weather observations daily for 28 locations across the UK for the last 23 year 9 months.
Between 23Mar2021 1850Z and 24Mar2021 1550Z, there were 38, ½ hourly observation missing for Liverpool Airport. This was unusual as observations for the last 20 years had been extremely reliable.
Since the 23Mar2021, I have had a suspicion Liverpool temperatures appeared too warm. As such, I decided to investigate using empirical data, comparing Tmax, Tmin and Tmean for both Liverpool and Manchester 30 miles to the east as the crow flies.
Daily Tmax, Tmin and Tmean were collated for both locations from 05Sep2001 to 22Mar2021 (7,139 days).
Then daily Tmax, Tmin and Tmean were analysed for both locations from 25Mar2021 to 08Jul2021 with the following results.
Fig 1 Tmax difference between Liverpool & Manchester 05Sep2001-22Mar2021
The Tmax average difference between Liverpool and Manchester from 05Sep2001 to 22Mar2021, Liverpool was 0.43°C warmer.
The large difference in the Tmax on the 13Aug2003 was due to early fog taking longer to clear at Manchester.
Fig 2 Tmin difference between Liverpool & Manchester 05Sep2001-22Mar2021
The Tmin average difference between Liverpool and Manchester from 05Sep2001 to 22Mar2021, Liverpool was 1.40°C warmer. This is not surprising considering Liverpool airport is next to water, the river Mersey and Manchester is inland.
Fig 3 Tmean difference between Liverpool & Manchester 05Sep2001-22Mar2021
The Tmean average difference between Liverpool and Manchester from 05Sep2001 to 22Mar2021, Liverpool was 0.80°C warmer
The difference in Tmax, Tmin and Tmin on 07Jan2010, the "Beast from the East" winter, when Liverpool Tmax 0.0°C, Tmin -7.0°C and Tmean -2.5°C and Manchester Tmax -6.0°C, Tmin -14.0°C and Tmean -10.5C. Bearing in mind Liverpool Airport is situated next to the estuary of the river Mersey and Manchester Airport is 30 miles east, inland - not unusual.
Since the 38 ½ hourly observations break in observations between 23/24Mar2021 figures 4, 5 and 6 show the changes.
Fig 4 Difference between Liverpool and Manchester Tmax 25Mar2021-18Jul2021
Tmax temperature between Liverpool and Manchester has risen 1.7°C from the 05Sep2001-22Mar2021 average.
Fig 5 Difference between Liverpool and Manchester Tmin 25Mar2021-18Jul2021
Tmin temperature between Liverpool and Manchester has risen 2.0°C from the 05Sep2001-22Mar2021 average.
Fig 6 Difference between Liverpool and Manchester Tmean 25Mar2021-18Jul2021
Tmean temperature between Liverpool and Manchester has risen 1.9°C from the 05Sep2001-22Mar2021 average.
Summary:
Figures 1-3 show the difference between Liverpool airport and Manchester airport for Tmax, Tmin & Tmean for the period 05Sep2001 to 22Mar2021 (7,139 days):
Tmax 0.4°C Liverpool warmer than Manchester:
Tmin 1.4°C Liverpool warmer than Manchester
Tmean 0.8°C Liverpool warmer than Manchester
This was to be expected due to their differing geographical locations. Liverpool being nearer to water, the Mersey estuary, and Manchester being inland.
From 25Mar2021 to 18Jul2021
Tmax 2.1°C: 1.7°C Liverpool warmer than Manchester
Tmin 3.4°C: 2.0°C Liverpool warmer than Manchester
Tmean 2.7°C: 1.9°C Liverpool warmer than Manchester
These are exceptionally large discrepancies in comparison to the long-term data:
What happened during the 19 hours of missing observations between the 23/24Mar2021? I suggest they have had new thermometers. I have tried phoning Air Traffic Control at Liverpool, who look after weather observations, on numerous occasions, without reply even after double and triple checking it was the right telephone number. An enquiry to the Met Office by Tony Brown received this reply:
"Thank you for your enquiry. I can confirm that we do have an observing site at Speke (Liverpool Airport), but aside from that I do not know whether the apparent break in observations on 24/25 March 2021 was due to new or replacement thermometers being installed, or for some other reason. The Land Observations team may be able to comment further (cc'd)."
Out of interest, "Speke" Liverpool airport was renamed "John Lennon" Liverpool airport 10 years ago.
Of course, no answer from the Land Observations team as yet.
The questions which arise; have they moved the recording equipment to a new site at the airport? Or have the changed the temperature measuring equipment? If they have had new thermometers, why were they not tested in parallel for a significant time to make sure they were compatible for use.
Call me cynical if you like, but this is a particularly good way of achieving the IPCC desired 1.5°C temperature increase, but they cannot blame it on CO2 this time.