UK Met Office Extreme Heat Warning Failure

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UK Met Office Extreme Heat Warning Failure

⚠️⚠️ Amber Weather Warning issued ⚠️⚠️

Extreme Heat across parts of South Wales, West Midlands, southern and southwestern England

Valid until 23:59 Thursday 22Jul2021


This is the first ever Extreme Heat Warning issued#Heatwave
Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs
Stay #WeatherAware pic.twitter.com/bTHUyFL6uL
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 19, 2021


From an Article in the Daily Telegraph:

"Vulnerable groups should expect to experience "adverse health effects", while the wider population is likely to experience sunburn and heat exhaustion, including dehydration, nausea, fatigue.
Extreme heat can also impact infrastructure, including transport and energy, as well as the wider business community.

Changes to working practices and daily routines are likely to be required with amber extreme heat warnings, the forecasters said.

Ollie Claydon, a Met Office spokesman, said that could mean reorienting work schedules around the hottest part of the day, including starting earlier and having a break midday for those who work outside.

Andrew Bridgen MP criticised the issuing of guidance around how to act in a heatwave, adding that it "smacks of the Nanny State".

"We have regular weather forecasts to know what the weather is going to be... (this) is more of the Nanny State carrying on from the huge restrictions of the Covid pandemic. It's a worrying trend," he said.

But Prof Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health at University College London, warned that the current temperatures "pose a significant danger to human health if we do not take appropriate action".

The Met Office's warning comes as police said a body was recovered from a lake in Sheffield and a man died after falling from rocks in Dorset, taking the number of deaths linked to the warm weather on Sunday to five."

The warning covered the period 19-22 July 2021

Data:
All temperatures are the reported temperatures from ½ hourly observations; they may or may not be the maximum which may be 1degree higher, or minimum which may be 1 degree lower., the mean temperatures are the mean of 48x½ hourly observations.

As it was a heat warning the highest maximum, highest minimum and mean temperatures were used.

From our records there are 5 locations which are in the area of the warning: Cardiff, Birmingham, Heathrow, Gatwick, Southampton and Culdrose.

The Facts

19Jul2021
Maximum:Gatwick and Heathrow tied with 30°C
Minimum: Birmingham with 20°C
Mean: Birmingham/Heathrow tied with 24.5°C

20Jul2021
Maximum:Heathrow with 31°C
Minimum: Birmingham and Heathrow tied at 18°C
Mean: Birmingham and Heathrow tied at 24°C

21Jul2021
Maximum:Gatwick and Heathrow tied with 29°C
Minimum: Heathrow with 18°C
Mean Heathrow with 24°C

22Jul2021
Maximum:Birmingham with 29°C
Minimum: Cardiff with 20°C
Mean: Cardiff with 24°C

These figures are not remarkable for July days and most certainly do no justify an extreme heat warning.

As many people escape British summers to the Mediterranean for their holidays, we looked at data for 10 location around the Med and Faro, Portugal; Malaga, Spain;
Barcelona, Spain;
Palma, Spain;
Nice, France;
Palermo, Italy;
Luqa Malta;
Athens, Greece;
Heraklion, Crete, Greece;
Antalya, Turkey and
Larnaca, Cyprus

19Jul2021
Maximum:Malaga and Larnaca tied with 33°C
Minimum: Nice and Larnaca tied with 24°C
Mean: Larnaca with 29°C

20Jul2021
Maximum:Larnaca with 35°C
Minimum: Larnaca with 25°C
Mean: Larnaca with 29.5°C

21Jul2021
Maximum:Athens and Larnaca tied with 34°C
Minimum: Barcelona/Palermo/Athens tied with 24°C
Mean: Larnaca with 29°C

22Jul2021
Maximum:Palma with 36°C
Minimum: Heraklion with 26°C
Mean: Larnaca with 28.5°C

Once again, these figures are not unusual for July days around the Med. None of these place had an extreme heat warning in place

Maximum temperatures were between 3°C and 6°C warmer - 8 out of 11 Med location equal or higher than UK Extreme Heat Warning areas

Highest minimum temperatures were 6°C warmer - 11 out of 11 Med locations higher than UK Extreme Heat Warning areas

Mean temperatures were between 9.5°C and 11.5°C. 11 out of 11 Med locations equal or higher than UK Extreme Heat Warning areas

These results make a mockery of the UK Met Office Extreme Heat Warnings.